Bitcoin rips 23%

The Roundup is Rhino’s weekly read for people who'd rather build a process than predict a price.

The cold streak broke. 

Bitcoin spiked around 23% in the past seven days, soaring to above $80,000, its highest price mark since May. If you’ve been waiting for the market to actually turn bullish, this is what that looks like. 

The conditions for this type of jump have been there for months. Prices had been consolidating, while volatility continued to slide and investors steadily accumulated. 

Then, the catalyst. Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a broadening of Treasury bond buybacks. Yields and the dollar took a nosedive, pushing risk assets like Bitcoin upwards. 

But before you start shouting it’s a bull market, let’s separate what’s real from what’s just loud.

First, what’s real: the buying. 

Unlike many of the limp bounces we’ve watched fall flat over the past few months, this time actual buyers stepped in and gobbled up coins. Demand, in fact, held its side of the bargain alongside a climbing price. 

A big chunk of that demand comes from exchange-traded funds. The 11 providers had their strongest week of inflows since last October, adding around $2 billion to their positions. 

How you hold Bitcoin decides whether you can hold it when it counts. Our new 33-page report breaks down ETFs, exchanges, and self-custody, including the fees, the risks, and what history shows when the middleman fails.

Exclusive interviews with Lyn Alden, Ric Edelman, and Ryan Rasmussen.

Now onto the fragile: part of this was mechanical. 

Many traders were betting against Bitcoin, and as it rose they were forced to buy back at a higher price in order to cover their bets. That’s the type of scramble that adds fuel fast and burns out just as quickly. 

Yet the clearest sign that this rally probably needs some relief is the betting that’s happening behind it. Options traders are piling into bets that Bitcoin goes higher, wagering that “it goes higher” faster than at any point in the past two years, according to the Kobeissi Letter. 

Investors are “chasing the rally,” The Kobeissi Letter wrote on X. 

An option gives the trader the right, but not the obligation, to purchase an underlying asset at a specific price at a later date.

How you hold Bitcoin decides whether you can hold it when it counts. Our new 33-page report breaks down ETFs, exchanges, and self-custody, including the fees, the risks, and what history shows when the middleman fails.

Exclusive interviews with Lyn Alden, Ric Edelman, and Ryan Rasmussen.

Now onto the part that’s important to you, dear reader.

Analysts far and wide are already taking a victory lap, with one well-known macro investor declaring that the “big low is in,” and the next stop is back toward six figures.

Maybe. When it comes to Bitcoin you never really know. 

That flip is the exact same cycle signal we’ve been talking about for weeks. Now it’s just coming from the other side. 

That is this week’s uncomfortable lesson. The people who are being rewarded now are the ones who quietly kept buying Bitcoin  while the news around it was boring and awful. One great week is not a confirmed trend. It’s a promising start that still has to prove it can hold.

How you hold Bitcoin decides whether you can hold it when it counts. Our new 33-page report breaks down ETFs, exchanges, and self-custody, including the fees, the risks, and what history shows when the middleman fails.

Exclusive interviews with Lyn Alden, Ric Edelman, and Ryan Rasmussen.

So what tells us this was the real turn and not a head-fake? Not the next round number. It’s whether Bitcoin holds the ground it just took back. The Federal Reserve meets at Jackson Hole this week and could shove it either way. 

But the signal to watch isn’t $80,000 in the next few days.

It’s whether Bitcoin can still be sitting above these reclaimed levels a few weeks from now without going back down below $65,000.

Chat next week,

Rhino Research Team