Everyone is selling. Here's what whales are doing

The Roundup is the newsletter from Rhino — the Bitcoin-only app to buy, hold, and borrow against your Bitcoin, with no rehypothecation.

Good morning Bitcoiners,

Bitcoin is heading into one of its most important macro windows of the year.

Inflation data arrives in mid-July. Then, two weeks later comes the Fed.

While much of the market is waiting for answers, on-chain data suggests Bitcoin’s largest holders aren’t waiting at all.

That’s the split I want to focus on today. Not because we know what comes next, but because the next three weeks could determine whether these buyers got their timing right.

Bitcoin opened the month at its lowest price in 652 days, down about 20% on the month. Today it trades at around $63,000, according to data from CoinGecko.

While recent buyers are folding under the pressure of a crippling bear market (roughly 50,000 coins hit exchanges at a loss in a single day, and ETF holders have sold nearly $5 billion over the past eight weeks), on-chain analysts estimate that whales and long-term holders have added more than 270,000 over the past two weeks. 

Although the market still assigns roughly a 75% probability that the Fed leaves rates unchanged in July, investors will spend the next three weeks repricing that probability as inflation data and Fed commentary arrive.

Indeed, the nervous are selling to the patient. 

What makes this moment interesting isn’t that whales are buying.

It’s when they’re buying. They’re accumulating into one of the most uncertain macro backdrops of the year. 

Markets still assign a high probability that rates stay unchanged.

But expectations — not just decisions — can move markets quickly.

That’s why traders will be watching every inflation print and every Fed comment between now and then.

Interest rate cuts tend to boost Bitcoin by making borrowing cheaper and pushing investors toward riskier assets, while rate hikes often weigh on Bitcoin by making cash and bonds more attractive.

For the recent accumulation to prove well-timed, however, two things likely need to happen. First, ETF outflows need to stabilize after roughly $4.5 billion left Bitcoin funds in June. Second, Bitcoin needs to continue defending the $58,000 level.

If those conditions improve while macro sentiment becomes more supportive, today’s buyers may look prescient.

If they don’t, volatility is unlikely to disappear anytime soon.

Now onto the only lesson that matters this week.

History suggests waiting for certainty has often been expensive. Markets don’t wait for certainty. They price changing expectations.

By the time the macro picture becomes obvious, investors have often already repositioned, and prices have begun adjusting long before the headlines catch up.

That’s why the question isn’t whether the Fed cuts rates on July 29. It’s whether today’s expectations prove too pessimistic.

If your strategy depends on predicting the exact bottom, you’ll probably miss it. If it depends on steadily building a position, every correction becomes an opportunity.

Buy the dip with Rhino and get the most Bitcoin for your buck.

One is the group that sold into the fear, while the other was already there when the door opened. 

Remember, conviction isn’t something you summon at $58,000. By then, the fear is much louder than you are. Conviction is a process you set now, so the 29th happens to your plan instead of to your emotions. 

Whales, in general, aren’t braver than you. They are just earlier and better prepared. 

Until next week,

Hector