Everyone is watching the wrong Bitcoin story today

The Roundup is Rhino’s weekly read for people who’d rather build a process than predict a price.

Congress in the U.S. is making it very hard for Bitcoin to take off.

Bitcoin is down 2.5% to around $76,500, after the Clarity Act — the big crypto-regulation bill that a lot of the market has been counting on — collapsed in the Senate today.

Over the weekend, Republican lawmakers issued their latest version of the Clarity Act, declaring it their final version. But it ran head on into a counter-proposal from Democrats which, in turn, also received a swift rejection from across the aisle.

Odds of the bill passing crashed to the mid-teens today from about 30% on Monday.

But that’s just one side of the story. Here’s the quieter one that also matters.

Bitcoin is pulling away from tech. Earlier this week, AI stocks got hammered — SoftBank fell 13%, OpenAI delayed its long-awaited IPO — after some of the biggest names in AI called for slowing the technology down.

A year ago, a scare like that would have dragged Bitcoin down with it.

This time? Bitcoin barely flinched, off about half a percent.

For most of the last two years, Bitcoin and tech stocks rose and fell together. Lately they’ve started going their separate ways — and this week was the clearest example yet.

Moreover, the backdrop still leans Bitcoin’s way. Zoom out past both the vote and the tech scare. Government deficits continue to reach record highs, the U.S. is attempting to buy back its own bonds, and inflation simply won’t settle down.

The whole picture is one of money slowly losing its value over time.

Forget about timing the headlines, and simply stack. At Rhino, we’re offering you 16 days to win free Bitcoin:

Today stings, yes, but don’t mistake a one-day political headline for the trend.

The doomers that are ensuring that “crypto regulation is dead” seem to have forgotten that the GENIUS Act already gave stablecoins a federal framework, and the SEC, CFTC, and the U.S. Treasury, keep building rules regardless of one stalled bill.

Meanwhile, the real macro catalyst isn’t the vote. It’s the Fed, which decides on interest rates tomorrow. That’s the number to watch now.

Speak next week,

Rhino Research Team