Extreme Fear = Extreme Opportunity

Happy Tuesday Bitcoiners,

For those who’ve been paying attention, Bitcoin's Fear & Greed Index just hit 5 (the lowest reading in its entire history).

Yes, lower than Covid (2020), FTX (2022), and even lower than Mt. Gox (2014).

So what indicators are flashing “buy”? Well the Financial Times declared Bitcoin dead (yet again), Jim Cramer turned into a Bitcoin bear (a great contra indicator), and on-chain data points to a bottoming out.

This week we’re covering:

• CoinShares just debunked the quantum FUD with hard data

• The on-chain signal that has called every bear market bottom

• Legacy media's latest obituary, and why it might be the perfect ‘buy’ signal

New Video Drop:

Bitcoin critics spent the week trying to tie Jeffrey Epstein to Bitcoin after the DOJ released 3.5 million pages of new files.

I broke down why the facts tell a very different story 👇

1. Quantum FUD Gets Debunked

"Quantum computers will break Bitcoin". Yes, you've heard it before. And this week, James Butterfill published a data-driven breakdown.

His conclusion? It's a manageable risk, and not an existential one.

The numbers show that breaking Bitcoin's cryptography would require 13 million physical qubits. The largest quantum computer today has 105.

That's 100,000x short.

CoinShares estimates only 10,000-20,000 BTC in legacy addresses could realistically be at risk of sudden market disruption, and even that is decades away.

Jameson Lopp pushed back, arguing the real exposure is much larger. In his "Safeguarding Satoshi's Stash" keynote, Lopp cited 1.7 million BTC in P2PK UTXOs and 4 million+ BTC with exposed pubkeys. Bitcoin Core developer Pieter Wuille estimated 5-10 million BTC theoretically stealable.

Both are making valid points from different angles. CoinShares measures sudden market risk. Lopp and Wuille measure total theoretical exposure. Either way, the conclusion is the same: known problem, long runway, Bitcoin evolves.

Why This is Something We’re Tracking: Quantum risk is a 10-20 year engineering consideration, not a ticking time bomb. As Adam Back put it: "Bitcoin can adopt post-quantum signatures.

Schnorr paved the way, and Bitcoin can continue evolving defensively." The real risk? Selling based on headlines from people who don't understand the math.

2. The On-Chain Signal that Calls Every Bottom

Next, we move on chain, with James Van Straten flagging a Glassnode chart this week that deserves our attention.

It tracks Bitcoin's supply in profit versus supply in loss, and the pattern is striking: every bear market bottom in Bitcoin's history has occurred when those two lines converge (highlighted by the purple circle below).

Here's how it works. When Bitcoin’s price is ripping upwards, nearly all circulating supply is in profit (blue dominates the chart).

Then, as the price slumps, more coins fall underwater and supply in loss (pink) rises toward supply in profit.

When they meet, that's historically been the bottom.

Van Straten's estimate for where convergence happens this cycle? Somewhere around $60K. (recall BTC touched $60,000 last week before bouncing to $69K).

Takeaway? We're right in the zone.

The chart shows this pattern holding across every major cycle: 2011, 2014, 2018, 2022. Each time the lines converged, it marked the point of maximum pain and maximum opportunity.

Why We’re Monitoring This: Sentiment indicators can be noisy but on-chain data is just pure and simple math. This metric doesn't care about headlines or Twitter panic or fomo. It tracks where coins actually changed hands.

And right now, it's telling the same story it told at every previous bottom: we're close.

3. Bitcoin Declared “Dead” Yet Again

Right on cue, the FT published an opinion piece by Jemima Kelly titled "Bitcoin Is Still About $69,000 Too High", arguing BTC is headed to zero. The best part? Bitcoin pumped $1,000 while the article was live, forcing the FT to quietly update the headline to "$70,000 too high."

The obituary couldn't even keep up with the price action 😂.

FT Alphaville has been writing Bitcoin obituaries since 2011 when BTC was $16. According to bitcoindeaths.com, Bitcoin has now been declared dead 464 times.

If you had invested just $100 every time someone pronounced it dead, you'd have $73,213,082 today (not a bad return for betting on Bitcoin when sentiment was at a low).

Why This Is an Important Indicator: Legacy media declaring Bitcoin dead has historically been one of the most reliable bottom signals. It happened in 2015, 2018, 2020, and after FTX. If you're betting against the 464 obituaries and 16 years of data, you'd better have a strong thesis.

The Final Word

Hundreds of obituaries calling Bitcoin dead. A Fear & Greed reading of 5/100. Quantum FUD debunked by the actual math. And Bitcoin, sitting here at $69K, quietly absorbing it all.

The people panicking right now are the same ones who'll be chasing $120K by the end of the year, wondering what they missed. The ones accumulating now are the ones who've seen this movie before.

If this is the moment you decide to act, make sure you're doing it right. Rhino Bitcoin offers the lowest fees in the industry and institutional-grade custody. How you buy matters just as much as when.

Chat next week,

Hector