One year after crypto's worst day, Bitcoin wobbles again

The Roundup is Rhino’s weekly read for people who'd rather build a process than predict a price.

One year ago, crypto had its worst day in history. On October 10, 2025, Trump announced a 100% tariff on China, and within hours more than $19 billion in leveraged bets, or around 87% of all wagers, on Bitcoin were wiped out. It was the largest liquidation event ever, hitting over 1.6 million traders. 

At the time, Bitcoin had been sitting near its all-time high around $126,000. This week, Bitcoin wobbled again — sliding to around $83,000, down about 3%. 

Of course, that’s nothing like last year’s decrease. But let's look at why it slipped, because there are some themes in common.

1. The Fed turned colder. Just last week, a weak jobs report had traders betting the Fed was done hiking — and Bitcoin ran to $86,000. Then the Fed's latest meeting notes landed and hinted another rate increase could still come this year.

2. Yields and oil are squeezing from both sides. Government bond yields are still near 5% — a near-two-decade high — pulling money toward “safe” returns. And the energy shock is real: with the Iran conflict grinding into its eighth month, and a renewed conflict in Yemen after a series of Houthi attacks, oil is back above $100 and fueling exactly the inflation that keeps the Fed hawkish. Both are headwinds for an asset like Bitcoin.

3. The leverage got flushed. In a single day last week, about $1.16 billion in bets were liquidated — roughly 90% of them bets that Bitcoin would go up. That's a smaller echo of last year's $19 billion wipeout, but it's the same mechanism: too many people borrowing to bet one way being forced to sell when it turns.

And that's the lesson worth keeping. A year ago, the holders who lost money on 10/10 weren't the ones who simply owned Bitcoin — they were the ones who borrowed to own more. Bitcoin itself recovered but those who made leveraged bets couldn’t do the same.

The leverage didn't come back. This week's mini-flush is the same story: a dip stings if you're patient, but it only takes your position out if you're leveraged.

Indeed, the lesson of 10/10 is simple: own your Bitcoin, don’t gamble it. Rhino is built for exactly that; for you to buy real Bitcoin and hold it yourself. No leverage and nothing to liquidate.

Chat next week,

The Rhino Research Team