The biggest Bitcoin seller just disappeared

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For eight straight weeks, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds bled money.

Most of that selling came from BlackRock’s IBIT, accounting for the majority of withdrawals during several of the largest redemption weeks and, on some days, virtually all of the industry’s net outflows.

That finally changed last week, as the 11 providers took in a net $197 million — its first inflows in two months. 

Bottom signal? Not so fast. Although it’s definitely a respite for traders and investors alike, the figure removes something that matters more. The steady seller that had been leaning on this market for two months might be exhausting itself. 

Spot selling pressure has faded from an average of around 2,000 BTC a day in June to just 53 BTC a day in July. Outside of April, that would mean it’s the calmest month of 2026, according to Glassnode. 

As one analyst put it, “the marginal seller is drying up.”

Bitcoin trades at around $63,500 after dropping around 1% in the past seven days. 

That doesn’t mean a new bull market has begun, however.

One seller may have eased, but a powerful new buyer hasn’t clearly arrived yet.

We could still have months of sideways movement ahead of us. 

Already the $60,000 to $70,000 range is the third most traded region in Bitcoin history, according to Glassnode.

So we have easing selling pressure along with a speculative bounce.

And today, we’ll get fresh inflation numbers coming in from the U.S.

Which means, right on schedule, everyone’s about to try to trade it. If inflation is surprisingly high, traders will sell Bitcoin in droves. If inflation is surprisingly low, Bitcoin’s price might start spiking.

The problem is that everyone else is looking at the same number at the same time. And by the time you’ve reacted, so has the price. 

Traders spend an enormous amount of energy predicting where Bitcoin trades by the end of the week, month, year, and decade.

Long-term investors, meanwhile, spend that energy deciding what they’ll do regardless of where it trades next week. The age-old adage that 95% of traders lose money didn’t appear out of nowhere. 

That’s the whole case for not touching the sell button today. 

A position you actually keep beats a perfectly-timed trade you talked yourself into. Because the only way to be holding at $180,000 or $500,000, or wherever Bitcoin price ends up, is to still be holding on the boring Tuesdays in between.

If you clicked “I honestly don’t know,” this is what a plan looks like in practice:

I’ll chat to you next week,

Hector